Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 12.504417 14.298254 16.227608 18.453263 20.946022 23.647908 26.794101
2025-07-27 9.799320 12.222283 15.028448 18.503345 22.674328 27.502463 33.495927
2025-08-03 8.243150 10.881857 14.087905 18.241750 23.449703 29.729167 37.835772
2025-08-10 7.167317 9.955906 13.491871 18.259636 24.468847 32.224009 42.577190
2025-08-17 6.405007 9.300745 13.110954 18.427490 25.578843 34.780013 47.413286
2025-08-24 5.710506 8.643700 12.638315 18.391082 26.361524 36.896997 51.733282
2025-08-31 5.094457 8.018957 12.132371 18.233017 26.919593 38.689405 55.651148
2025-09-07 4.650450 7.590139 11.849709 18.339392 27.812187 40.937333 60.248626
2025-09-14 4.380471 7.389356 11.868337 18.859716 29.294183 44.042279 66.143777
2025-09-21 3.963306 6.917345 11.438248 18.671971 29.714578 45.639008 69.948254
2025-09-28 3.449548 6.239432 10.634301 17.849112 29.121864 45.716228 71.529706
2025-10-05 3.274529 6.099754 10.657142 18.297055 30.461319 48.668137 77.421962
2025-10-12 3.079312 5.913592 10.598832 18.623590 31.648975 51.476639 83.273805
2025-10-19 2.828028 5.606282 10.317028 18.566340 32.223531 53.374818 87.828003
2025-10-26 2.574567 5.268675 9.953825 18.340558 32.498479 54.799707 91.684231
2025-11-02 2.385032 5.029660 9.739608 18.345896 33.140510 56.813388 96.521944
2025-11-09 2.239331 4.858860 9.630230 18.518842 34.060315 59.294523 102.179082
2025-11-16 2.075901 4.637457 9.411402 18.480764 34.612231 61.192230 106.959574
2025-11-23 1.911165 4.396974 9.137788 18.322531 34.940367 62.724024 111.187735
2025-11-30 1.795144 4.244429 9.016199 18.429190 35.728260 65.038363 116.770779
2025-12-07 1.738115 4.210067 9.117276 18.951837 37.274170 68.679854 124.681163
2025-12-14 1.603626 3.996214 8.851499 18.763256 37.524690 70.117379 128.926037
2025-12-21 1.413537 3.640093 8.274301 17.936822 36.560241 69.409803 129.479901